It’s
April 16, 2000. The second day of another NFL draft is underway. The
quarterback prospects plucked so far include Chris Redman and Giovanni Carmazzi
in the third round, Tee Martin in the fifth, and Spergon Wynn in the early
sixth. Who? Precisely. But I’ll bet you’ve heard the name of the quarterback
who every NFL team passed on at least five times: Tom Brady.

More
than half of all players selected before Brady are no longer playing in the
league. How could this happen? How could all the sage football minds
representing each NFL team overlook a player like Tom Brady, a three-time Super
Bowl winner and two-time Super Bowl MVP?

This
sort of thing happens every year in the NFL draft, and at every position. If
you’re lucky, your team finds the next Tom Brady. But if your team passes on a
guy who turns out to be a Hall of Famer and instead selects a player who
becomes a mediocre journeyman, its glaring lack of omniscience will never be
forgotten, or forgiven. And no clichรฉ about hindsight will appease angry fans.

So
who is this year’s Tom Brady? We won’t know for a few years, and that’s if a
steal in the class of a Tom Brady even exists in this draft. But if you’re a
fan of football, you’re sure to find a compelling story in the 2005 NFL draft,
which airs this Saturday and Sunday, April 23 and 24, on ESPN.

There is a quarterback in this draft
who has created a quite a buzz. Call me a bandwagon jumper if you like, but
he’s the guy that I’ll bet is going to eventually out-produce every player
selected before him. He won’t achieve greatness at the quarterback position,
though. He changed to receiver to maximize his draft status — his arm
strength is considered marginal — and has played only one game at that
position (the meaningless Senior Bowl). That’s right, one game, and not even a whole one at that.

But
this kid is different. He’s an R.O.U.S. (Receiver Of Unusual Size) from the
University of Arkansas named Matt Jones. Six weeks ago, Jones was considered a
sixth- or seventh-round “project,” but he recently blew the scouts away at the
annual NFL scouting combine with an impressive display of receiving skills, a
4.37 40-yard dash, and 40″ vertical leap. Now he’s widely regarded as a first-
or second-round certainty.

How’s
that? Jones is 6′ 6″, 242 pounds, and can run as fast or faster than any of the
smaller track-star types in the NFL and jump as high as a professional
basketball player. Measurements like these are unheard of in the NFL. When you
combine them into a profile that includes versatility, good hands, toughness,
and a solid, serenely confident character, you have yourself a first-round
prospect.

So
this year people are wondering more about where Matt Jones will be picked than
who will be picked first. Of course, the more important question is: What will
time tell us about the wisdom and foresight of selecting him? And that’s what
the NFL draft is all about: questions. A lot of questions can be answered by
the players’ height, weight, strength, speed, college production, and
intelligence tests. But answers to some of the most important questions are
elusive. Will the money change him? Does he really love the game?

This
is the stuff that makes the NFL draft the ever-growing phenomenon that it is.
It has spawned hundreds of websites run by amateur “draftniks” who ask for
subscription fees as high as $40 per year — and get them. There are “mock
draft” contests everywhere. Campbell’s (the soup company) is offering $100,000
to the contestant who can guess the entire first round correctly.

How did the
draft become so popular? For starters, football is the most popular sport in America.
And then there’s the king of all NFL draft pundits, Mel Kiper Jr. Since 1984,
Kiper has appeared on ESPN to provide viewers with concise factoids about all
the players. Some find him grating, but you have to give him credit for helping
to elevate the NFL draft into the big event it has become.

He
did it in part by brazenly criticizing some NFL general managers and players
immediately following selections he considered a “reach.” In doing so, he made
the draft process interesting. He made it watchable. He’s often right in his
calls, but he has made his share of embarrassing gaffes, too. In 1994, after
the Colts selected future Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk with the
second overall pick, Kiper said “That’s why the Colts keep picking No. 2 every
year.” Oops.

But
that stuff is for the audience. The football personnel pros for every NFL team
know what they’re doing and don’t care to hear arbitrary and premature grades.
They work year-round to prepare for the April draft, watching countless hours
of film, talking to college coaches, teammates, parents, and opponents. They
interview the prospects, test them in a variety of ways, and even hire
psychologists to administer personality evaluations. Finally they convene to
debate their futures. They know their stuff.

So,
what of the Buffalo Bills’ plans? Unless they trade up, they won’t make their
selection until the second round, having traded their first-round pick for the
opportunity to select their new starting quarterback, J.P. Losman, in last
year’s first round. But the word around the league is that if there’s ever been
a year to not have a first round pick, it’s this one. There is no consensus
about who the top 15 players are in this draft, and that’s unusual.

Allow
me to play the role of Mel Kiper Jr. for a moment and take a stab at the Bills’
top pick this year: They will swap second-round picks with the Arizona
Cardinals and exchange disgruntled running back Travis Henry for left tackle
L.J. Shelton, a rumor that has withstood the test of time. With the higher pick
(#44, up from #55) the Bills will select none other than WR Matt Jones, who is
exactly the kind of multi-purpose talent Bills Head Coach Mike Mularkey craves.

If
I’m right, I’ll make sure I remind you in a future article. If I’m wrong,
you’ll never hear about this again.

This article appears in Apr 20-26, 2005.