The next Congressional election is only nine months away,
and this year, Western New York just might matter.

With Republicans in the House of Representatives in
disarray, the president’s poll numbers stalling, and the DeLay-Cunningham-Abramoff
scandals making the news, some Democrats smell an opening. It’s probably overly
optimistic for the Dems to think they’ll seize
control of the House, but that hasn’t stopped some left-leaning pundits from
speculating about a revolution. And if that were to happen, odds that are Western
New York — where all but one district includes part of MonroeCounty — would be a prime
battleground.

Republicans outnumber Democrats in three of the four
districts, but there are enough third-party and independent voters (those
registered without a party affiliation) that those three districts could be
competitive.

And, says a recent posting on the liberal blog Daily Kos: “What makes this
region potentially fertile ground is how well the Democrats did” in recent
elections.

The blog says it hopes the
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee “sees the potential of making the
Northeast in 2006 what the South was for the GOP in 1994 — a beachhead in the
battle to reclaim the House.”

Judging from the number of candidates already expressing
interest, quite a few Upstate Dems see that potential. But that leaves the party with too many
options and opens the door to the Dems’ perpetual
vulnerability: bitter, bruising primaries.

One way to prevent that is for the Democratic committees in
each district to coalesce quickly around a candidate. But are the famously
fractious Dems open to such an undemocratic process?

“We actually are talking about coordinating and getting a
consensus on some of these issues,” says Monroe County Democratic Committee
Chair Joe Morelle. But, he adds, there’s been
“nothing formal” in the way of arrangements so far.

Here’s a glance at the local congressional races as they
shape up right now.

The 25th

New York’s
25th district includes all of OnondagaCounty (Greater Syracuse) and
stretches east through Cayuga and WayneCounties into Webster and parts of Irondequoit and Penfield.

The incumbent: Nine-term
Republican Jim Walsh.

The challengers: Walsh got away without a challenge from a major-party candidate two years ago.
This year the race for his seat promises to be one of the most interesting with
three Democrats competing to run against him in November.

One of them is Daniel
Maffei, who hails from the Syracuse
area. A former staffer for Senators Bill Bradley and Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Maffei’s early Federal Election Commission statements say
he has nearly $100,000 in cash on hand a substantial amount for this early in
the campaign. Judging from the statements on his website, Maffei’s
strategy will be to paint Walsh as part of the House Republican machinery that,
given the recent scandals, should be viewed with suspicion by
independent-minded voters.

On this end of the district, Webster resident PalomaCapanna, a
divorce attorney and businesswoman is also vying for the party’s nod. Her
strategy, like Maffei’s, seems to be to capitalize on
voters’ disappointment with Washington Republicans.

This early in the race, the candidates have said little to
differentiate themselves from one another; the platform pages on both Maffei’s and Capanna’s websites
read like the talking points of any moderate Democrat.

A third candidate, from roughly the geographical center of
the district, is Ken Howland of Port
Byron, CayugaCounty.
His eclectic life experience and prominent mention of campaign reform position
Howland as the populist candidate. His limited centrist platform is built
around a heavy emphasis on defense and homeland security.

The spread: Total
number of registered voters: 431,138. Republicans: 157,389. Democrats: 134,982.
Third-party and unaffiliated voters: 138,767.

The 26th

Stretching from Buffalo’s
suburbs to Rochester’s western
suburbs and including Batavia,
rural Wyoming and LivingstonCounties and part of Orleans,
New York’s 26thdistrict is the most geographically compact in Western
New York.

The incumbent: Four-term Republican Tom Reynolds. One of New York’s
most powerful politicians, Reynolds chairs the National Republican
Congressional Committee, which means it’s his job to get Republicans elected in
all these seats.

The challenger: In 2004, manufacturer Jack Davis spent over a million dollars of his own money giving Reynolds a surprisingly
serious challenge. (He took about 44 percent of the vote.) He’s expected to be
back on the ballot in 2006, perhaps with more support from local Dems this time around. Davis’s
approach to politics has been unusual, focusing almost exclusively on stopping
the outsourcing of American jobs to foreign countries (particularly in
manufacturing and other blue-collar industries). His Save American Jobs
Association flirts with the hard protectionism of Pat Buchanan (indeed, the
site links to a Buchanan article advocating the high tariffs of a century ago),
a stance that’s oddly paired, but not incompatible, with the Democratic Party’s
typical platform.

The spread: Registered voters: 452,192. Republicans: 185,838. Democrats: 141,589.
Third-party and unaffiliated voters: 124,765.

The 28th

A textbook example of a gerrymandered district, New
York’s 28th connects the strongly Democratic cities
of Buffalo and Niagara
Falls with Rochester,
another Democrat stronghold, through a narrow string of rural, lakeside towns
in Monroe, Orleans
and NiagaraCounties.

The incumbent: Ten-term Democrat Louise Slaughter.

The challengers: This district heavily favors Democrats, and so far, no Republican challenger
has emerged to run against Slaughter. Still, Steve Minarik,
chair of the New YorkState
and Monroe County Republican Committees, prides himself on finding candidates
for every race. (Minarik didn’t return calls from City Newspaper for this article.)

The rumored primary challenge from a fellow Dem, Buffalo
City Councilmember Antoine Thompson,
appears to be on hold. Thompson — who’d made early rumblings about a
challenge (See “No Slaughter in the House?” October 5)
— apparently agreed not to primary Slaughter if the Erie County Democratic
Committee would choose him to run in a special election to fill the State
Senate seat vacated by Buffalo’s new mayor, Byron Brown. Instead, the Erie Dems picked another City Councilmember, Marc Coppola.
Thompson will now have to decide which primary battle he’ll fight.

Morelle predicts that Thompson
will abandon his plan to take on Slaughter. “My understanding is that it’s less
and less likely,” he says.

The spread: Registered voters: 412,124. Democrats: 219,037. Republicans: 99,726.
Third-party and unaffiliated voters:93,361.

The 29th

Physically the largest of Western New York’s
districts, the 29th district is made up of several rural counties in the
Southern Tier plus Yates, Ontario,
and all or part of nine towns in southern MonroeCounty.

The incumbent: One-term Republican Randy Kuhl.

The challengers: With 24 years of active-duty experience in the US Navy, Corning Democrat Eric Massa has some of the toughest credentials of the military veterans turning to
politics. A Naval officer, he served as special assistant to General Wesley
Clark and went to work as a Capitol Hill staffer after a battle with cancer cut
his military career short. Instead of allowing himself to be pigeonholed as a
one-dimensional candidate, though, he has identified a broad range of issues,
from Social Security and health care to agriculture and trade.

The Dems may also have another
candidate. David Nachbar,
a senior vice president for human resources at Bausch and Lomb is reportedly
considering a bid. He has extensive experience in the corporate world and a
degree from CornellUniversity’s
Industrial and Labor Relations school. Nachbar was out of town and unable to respond to City’s request for an interview late
last week.

The spread: Registered voters: 421,962. Republicans: 185,860. Democrats: 123,191.
Third-party and unaffiliated voters: 112,911.

This article appears in Feb 1-7, 2006.