This post has been updated to clarify conclusions about likely average temperature increases.
In a long-awaited report, the world’s top climate scientists say that there’s no longer room to doubt or deny that climate change is happening and that human activity is the largest contributing factor.
Today, the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a summary document for policymakers, which the BBC describes as the first installment of a collection of scientific climate change studies that’ll come out over the next year. And the report’s conclusions are not good — some are pretty grim.
The IPCC lays out the report’s conclusions in layman’s terms via a series of press releases. Here are some of the highlights (many of these conclusions are laid out in one press release, which is available here):
- While scientists were already certain that human activity is driving global warming, the report concludes “It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”
- Since pre-industrial times, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by 40 percent, largely because of fossil fuel emissions and land-use changes. The oceans have absorbed about 30 percent of the emitted carbon dioxide, which is causing ocean acidification.
- Depending on the greenhouse gas emissions scenario that plays out, the global average temperature increase will likely pass 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The report also says that the end-of-the-century increase could be as low as .3 degrees Celsius and 4.8 degrees Celsius, according to an article in The Guardian. Scientists consider a 2-degree increase to be the tipping point beyond which serious changes will happen on a global scale.
- “Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent,” says one of the releases.
- Arctic sea ice will very likely continue to shrink.
- Increasing atmospheric carbon concentrations are also likely, and that’ll lead to increasing ocean acidification, says the IPCC.
This article appears in Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2013.
Finally, after scouring local news for two days I find a Rochester-area media that mentions yesterday’s release of IPCC (AR5) Climate Report: “Human influence on climate clear, IPCC report says” http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/ar…
Yesterday’s news release is just the first installment of a collection of scientific climate change studies that’ll come out over the next year. But it does stagger one’s mind to see at this late dale so few of Rochester’s media unwillingness to report on the greatest crisis of our age—a crisis that will have a profound effect on our region too. Climate Change is about planning ahead and though we are in the middle of a mayoral campaign nary a word from the candidates or the press about how our next mayor will lead on Climate Change. Two weeks ago I listened to a governmental expert say that NYS temperature figures are on a trajectory for a 6C rise by 2100. That’s game over.
It isn’t just about how hot it’s going to get, it’s about the speed it going to warm—far faster than any animal or plant has ever had to adapt before. This should galvanize the public to demand that their next leader provide their platform on adapting our transportation, telecommunications, and water infrastructures for more extreme and frequent rainfall. What will the mayoral candidate do to provide adequate shelter for more extreme heatwaves and in the increase of warm-climate diseases, like West Nile Virus, Lyme disease, malaria, and dengue fever—for those homeless and without health care? What will the next mayor do to prepare our region, rich in fresh water and productive soil, for the probable influx of those not blessed with such resources?
Rochester should be preparing for not only future disasters, but future prosperity because of our region’s abundance of transportation options (think canal too for heavy freight), farmland (as yet, un-Fracked, growing renewable energy, and did I say fresh, clean water?
BTW: This IPCC (AR5) study, though a world-wide study by the majority of the world’s climate scientists, had to be approved by not only other climate scientists (95%), the study also had to pass through the powers of many nations. It is a very conservative study (that many scientists say is too milquetoast) and it is not the only climate study around. There are many, many climate studies from many governmental agencies, universities, groups, and industry (like the re-insurance companies) that are all saying the same thing: You cannot ignore Climate Change and continue business as usual. Thanks to Rochester City Newspaper for the world crisis mention. For without continual coverage on Climate Change by the local press, the public will get deluded that this issue will somehow bypass us. I don’t think so.
Never will you hear an estimate about how well the current actual and proposed solutions will work; funny.