If you’re looking for meaning in last night’s Wisconsin recall election, you should read Nate Silver‘s take.
The New York Times blogger says that Republican Governor Scott Walker’s victory
isn’t necessarily bad news for President Barack Obama.
Walker stripped away union rights for most public employees and the
subsequent backlash led to the recall election.
Silver, the New York Times blogger who blends statistical analysis with
political commentary, compared the presidential and Wisconsin races in recent
posts. And he’s reiterated
a simple point: “I don’t really think WI will tell us much about
November. The same polls that have Walker ahead have Obama winning, too.”
Steve Kornacki at Salon makes a similar
point in an article
posted this morning.
Silver’s blog
post from last night is also worth a read. He makes the case that
governor’s elections aren’t good indicators of how presidential elections will
play out.
“The politics for a governor’s campaign are often subject to different
currents than presidential ones, and historically the party identification of a
state’s governor has said little about how presidential candidates will fare
there,” he wrote.
This article appears in Summer Guide 2012.
