The Congressional primary between Republicans Christopher Collins and David
Bellavia hasn’t received as much local attention as Monroe County’s main House
race: the general election matchup between Democrat Louise Slaughter and
Republican Maggie Brooks. And yet the primary election will be held next week.
Collins and Bellavia are running for their party’s nomination for Congress
from the 27th District, which includes Hamlin, Wheatland, Rush, Mendon, and
part of Clarkson. The winner will run against Democratic incumbent Kathy
Hochul.
The primary campaign has been low-key, at least on the Rochester end of the
district. The candidates haven’t engaged in an ad war, but rather have gone
directly to local committees and voters. The candidates should be familiar to
many primary voters in the district anyway. Bellavia, an Iraq War veteran, has
run for Congress before, and Collins is the former Erie County executive. It’s
a race where platform and grassroots support will make the most difference.
And in terms of grassroots support, Bellavia appears to be ahead. He has
active supporters in the Monroe County part of his district, in Wyoming County,
in Orleans County, and in Genesee County, his home county. He’s also received
endorsements from the Orleans, Livingston, and Wyoming County parties. (Not all
county parties in the district made endorsements.)
Collins picked up an endorsement from the state Conservative Party,
and he’s got some support among Erie and Niagara County leaders.
In the past, the winner of this primary would have had very good odds of
winning the general. The 26th District was always reliably Republican, and
redistricting, when it was redrawn as the 27th, only increased the Republican
enrollment advantage.
That’s hardly guaranteed at this point. During last year’s 26th District
special election, Hochul demonstrated that a Democrat can win the district. She
has the benefit of incumbency and is expected to run an aggressive campaign. If
the Republicans want to take back the seat, their candidate will have to be
equally aggressive.
This article appears in Bye bye unions?.
