I dunno; maybe some political
reporters are sensing something I’m not.
I keep reading stories and blogs hinting that Mitt Romney
has taken a risky – possibly fatal – step in choosing Paul Ryan as his running mate.
The reason: Ryan’s hope to partially privatize Medicare.
In their Politico post this morning, for instance, Alexander Burns,
Maggie Haberman, and Jonathan Martin say that they’ve
interviewed more than three dozen “Republican strategists and campaign
operatives.” And while those Republicans are putting a happy face on the Ryan
selection, off the record, they say “Romney has taken a risk with Ryan that has
only a modest chance of going right — and a huge chance of going horribly
wrong,” Burns, Haberman, and Martin write.
“They’re worried about inviting Medicare — usually death for
Republicans — into the campaign,” the journalists write. “They’re worried it
sidetracks the jobs issue. They’re worried he’ll expose the fact that Romney
doesn’t have a budget plan. Most of all, they’re worried that Romney was on
track to lose anyway — and now that feels all but certain.”
Maybe so. But I’m not so sure. Ryan’s plan to reform Medicare is
crafty, and it’s cynical: He doesn’t want to change Medicare for anybody who’s
getting it now. His change will affect people years in the future.
So seems to me that how voters in, say, Florida, react to
the Ryan pitch (and to Obama’s scary ads attacking Ryan) will depend on how
altruistic those voters are. If they believe everybody ought to be able
to receive medical coverage when they’re old, they won’t like the Ryan plan. On
the other hand, if their sentiment is more along the lines of “I’ve got mine…,”
then Romney’s not taking much of a risk at all.
We shall see.
This article appears in Aug 8-14, 2012.
