Short- and longer-term questions in light of Lovely Warren’s victory in Tuesday’s Democratic mayoral primary election:
Short ter
m
1) Will Tom Richards campaign on the Independence and Working Families lines?
2) How will the mayoral campaign of Green Party candidate Alex White adjust? White, like almost everyone else, was probably expecting to face Richards, not Warren, in November. (I had a brief e-mail exchange with White yesterday. He said that Warren’s victory will change his campaign, but not as much as you might think.)
Longer term (if Warren wins the general election)
1) Can Joe Morelle stay Democratic Party boss? Those quick to call for Morelle’s head need to say who should replace him.
2) We hear there’s a lot of resume-polishing going on at City Hall. You can’t blame them; it’s only natural for Warren to want to bring in her own people. And Warren made the lack of diversity in the city’s top jobs a campaign issue. But beware. Bob Duffy cleaned house when he came in, and the city gained some good people. But also some “dunderheads,” say sources who, you can guess why, don’t want to be named.
3) What happens to Police Chief James Sheppard? On the campaign trail, Warren has so far avoided questions about Sheppard’s fate. And the city’s streets have seemed particularly violent these last few weeks.
4) Who gets jobs? Undoubtedly, some of the people who supported Warren are going to end up employed by her administration. That’s how the game is played. I wouldn’t be surprised to see former Rochester school board member Allen Williams, and City Council members Dana Miller and Adam McFadden on the city’s payroll. Look to Warren’s transition team for clues.
5) How will Rochester’s business community, who backed Richards, react to a Warren victory? And what does that mean in terms of investment and development in the city, particularly downtown?
6) How much influence will State Assembly member David Gantt, Warren’s mentor and benefactor, have in city business? Plenty — no matter what Warren or Gantt say publicly.
This article appears in Sep 11-17, 2013.
Gantt has notably said that he won’t be a presence at City Hall. But he won’t have to be — anyone who has dealt with Gantt knows that he does most of his enforcement over the phone. In the 2007 City Council primary, when the late Shirley Edwards of the Vinyard was saying good things about Warren opponent Jim Bowers, Gantt called Edwards to put her on notice that she was endangering her funding. Edwards then told Bowers she was sorry but that she couldn’t openly support him in the primary. And that’s not an insinuation — it was discussed openly at an east side Dems candidate designation meeting.
So a Warren administration would include characters like Allen Williams–? He was considered a disappointment at best, and a disaster at worst, on the school board — but let’s give him another taxpayer-funded job he’s not qualified for–?
Your headline is spot on — Warren’s primary victory indeed raises many questions.
As much as I dislike Richards’ governing style, the guy is actually overqualified for the position (which is exactly what Rochester needs). I’m afraid the same cannot be said for Ms. Warren – though undoubtedly a genuine, caring, hardworking individual whose heart is in the right place.
Frankly, if Richards continues his campaign, it will divide Rochester’s Democrats even further. It also means that Richards will depend heavily on Independents and Republicans to win re-election…and the Republicans ran a surreptitious “Republicans for Johnson” campaign during the “special election.”
As for what happens in City Hall once Lovely is elected, she need look no further than Richards’ predecessor, Bob Duffy, for what to do. He cleaned out City Hall entirely, and that included replacing Cedric Alexander with David Moore as police chief.
As for Lovely’s connection to David Gantt, what about Richards’ connection to Bob Duffy?
Mr. Richards should continue to campaign because he has a good chance of winning.
How Alex White changes his strategies is irrelevent. He has no chance of winning.
Replacing Joe Morelle? There are plenty of Democrats in Rochester who would be willing to do it.
Will David Gantt clean out City Hall and replace them with his people? Yes.
Will Chief Sheppard go? Yes.
Will Mr. Gantt’s chief acolytes get jobs at City Hall. Yes. Many of them are already on the city payroll.
The business community? They will continue to do as they have always done. Nothing will change there.
How much influence in Rochester’s government will Mr. Gantt have? Mr. Gantt will be the most powerful man in Rochester, and control it just like he has controlled his candidate’s campaign with an iron fist from start until the finish.