Rochester Mayor Bill Johnson still won’t say whether he’ll be
a candidate for County Executive in November, but he’s giving every indication
that he will. And while several other Democrats hope to run, the nomination
seems to be Johnson’s if he wants it.
Meanwhile,
the political community is awash in reports that Tom Richards, former CEO of
RG&E, has gotten interested in the job.
For
months, some Democrats and Republicans have urged Richards to run, but he
seemed to resist. Now, though, he’s non-committal. In his Monday “Political
Notebook,” WXXI’s Michael Caputo said he asked Richards if he was interested in
running. Richards’ response: “I really don’t have a comment. Whatever I say can
get me in trouble.”
Maybe
this is just a set-up, to keep the Republicans off guard. But if Richards is interested, the Democrats — and
Johnson’s supporters — may have a dilemma.
The
Democrats ought to be able to win the county-exec race. The Doyle
administration’s record is abysmal. Doyle and his crew have run roughshod over
public opinion and have manipulated and obstructed important public projects.
The county faces a fiscal crisis that will take years (and considerable pain)
to remedy. While the crisis is not solely Doyle’s fault, it is clear that
better management could have lessened the pain.
And there
are numerous instances of major Republican contributors getting lucrative
county contracts. That creates the impression that Doyle bases his decisions
not on the needs of the community but on the needs of his party’s finances.
Doyle
isn’t seeking another term, but that’s beside the point. The problem is not
just Doyle. The problem is Republican chair Steve Minarik and other party
leaders: their principles and vision. Many longtime Republicans are as upset
with the Minarik regime as the most ardent Democrats are.
The
Minarik stranglehold on the county and on his party has to be broken. That will
happen only if a Democrat is elected county executive, with such a margin that
conscientious Republicans can regain control of their party.
The question is, which Democrat has the best chance of
winning?
Brighton
Town Supervisor Sandra Frankel and State Assemblymember David Koon want to run.
They don’t have Johnson’s countywide name recognition and his clout, however.
Until recently, he has seemed the Democrats’ best bet. But now there are these
reports about Tom Richards.
Richards
and Johnson aren’t strangers. And they met recently to discuss the
county-executive race. Maybe they’ve reached an agreement about which of them
will run.
Or
maybe Richards’ supporters have persuaded him to run — but the mayor has
moved from reluctant candidate to enthusiastic, regardless of what Richards and
his supporters want. And Richards likely has no intention of running if the
mayor wants the job.
And there’s the dilemma. Who is the best candidate? And who would be best for the county as
county executive?
Johnson
is widely respected, and he has a solid vision of where the county — and the
region — should go.
He
himself, however, has raised the question of whether he can be elected — both
because of his race, and because of his vision. He has insisted repeatedly that
the county and all of its parts should consider some form of metropolitan
government.
He
has offered no proposal; he has simply said that we have to start talking about
metro. But the Republicans will hang the metro issue around his neck. They will
run a well-financed, negative, scare-tactic campaign, warning that this
African-American mayor intends to take over the county, bring black and Latino
children to suburban schools, and dump the problems of the city into the laps
of the suburbs.
If
Johnson is able to counter that campaign and get elected, a fair number of
Republicans in the County Legislature — and, doubtless, some Democrats as
well — will do everything they can to obstruct his programs.
Richards,
in that light, may seem the better candidate. He is highly respected in the
business community. He should be able to attract campaign donations in his own
right; and an endorsement by Johnson would bring more support. (A Johnson
endorsement would also counter a Richards handicap: Richards isn’t as well
known as Johnson in the city, by African-American voters, among others.)
The
Minarik machine might have fun slinging mud at Johnson. It’s hard to picture
that happening with a Richards candidacy.
And
if the Democrats don’t have to counter the metro argument, it leaves them free
to focus on the Doyle record.
In
addition, Richards might find it easier to build coalitions with Republicans on
the County Legislature — to strengthen the independence of legislators like
George Wiedemer and Ray Santirocco and entice some Democrats into a bipartisan
effort at governing.
On
the other hand, Richards has no political experience. His business background
would be valuable. But he would be operating in a political environment,
needing to make tough choices and build support from contentious, highly
political legislators. He might not have the stomach and the political smarts
to be effective. And the public has no idea what his vision is for the county.
The
Democrats’ decision may already have been made. Still, the party has an
opportunity it hasn’t had in recent county-executive races: a strong chance at
winning. And Democrats have something else they haven’t had in years: strong
candidates. That forces them into the difficult position of fortune-teller: Is
their best bet the highly visible, experienced Johnson? Or is there the
possibility for a dream team: Richards as county exec, and Johnson in charge at
City Hall?
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This article appears in Feb 26 – Mar 4, 2003.
