Everything
is up for grabs. Everything in the CountyLegislature, that is.

In
theory.

Ordinarily,
only half the seats in the county’s lawmaking body come open in any election
(other than once a decade, after redistricting). But this year a term-limits
law takes effect, clearing out lawmakers on both sides of the aisle who’ve been
longtime fixtures. The result is that all 29 seats of the legislature are up
for election.

Theoretically,
that opens up infinite possibilities. But in reality, most of the seats will
remain in the hands of the party that now holds them. In the city, that’s the
Democrats; in most of the suburbs, it’s the Republicans. Still, just enough
seats are in play — and more than enough is power at stake — for this
campaign to be well worth watching.

Sally
Brown, of the League of Women Voters and the Rochester Voters Alliance, hopes
that’s true.

“We
feel it’s enormously important,” she says of the CountyLegislature election,
“and nobody’s paying attention to it. They’re the ones who decide where the
money goes.”

As
it stands, the Republicans hold a 17-12 majority. That means they can — and
do — control the county’s legislative agenda. If they want a law, they can
pass it. If they don’t, they can kill it. What they cannot do alone, however,
is approve bonding issues — borrowing money by selling county bonds. That
requires approval by at least two-thirds of the legislators.

Currently,
Democrats have enough seats to prevent bonding. Earlier this year, they used
that power to block the controversial purchase of a parking lot near the
airport from developer (and former Republican legislator) Peter Formicola.

With
a handful of races shaping up to be competitive, the possibilities range from
the Democrats taking a slim majority to the Republicans solidifying their
control over power, winning enough seats to be able to issue bonds without a
single Democratic vote.

Here’s
the how electoral math stacks up.

Seats the Dems could pick up

The
Democrats are almost certain to regain control of the 21st legislative district
on the city’s east side. Democrat Carrie Andrews, a labor relations specialist
with the state teachers’ union, faces Republican Phil Zuber, a bus driver and
landscaper.

The
Dems have a clear enrollment advantage and lost the seat only when the current
legislator — Chris Wilmot, who was elected as a Democrat — switched
parties.

Democrats
also have a shot (albeit a slim one) at unseating Majority Leader Bill Smith in
District 10 (part of Pittsford and East Rochester). Challenging
the powerful legislator is former businessman and teacher Ted Nixon, who’s run
a visible campaign.

It
helps Nixon that Pittsford has drifted toward the center in recent years. John
Kerry carried the village in last fall’s presidential election, and this past
spring Democratic candidates for the village board ran credible races, barely
losing. Still, Nixon will have to overcome a significant registration
disadvantage. Republicans outnumber Democrats in the 10th district, 6,851 to
4493.

The
Dems also think they have a chance in the 8th district (Webster), where Chris Gorman,
who works for the local painters union, faces Republican incumbent Dave Malta,
owner of Dave Malta Realty. This is a repeat of last year’s special election,
but the Dems are optimistic because this year Gorman will be on the
Independence Party line. Malta won his seat last year by 458 votes, the
narrowest margin of any sitting legislator.

Republican
targets

Among
the seats the Democrats could lose, the most interesting is the 6th district
(in Greece and part of Charlotte). That seat
is currently held by term-limited Fred Amato, one of the most conservative
members of the Democratic caucus.

Hoping
to trade on the Amato name, a well-respected one in Greece, the Dems
have put up Pat Amato, Fred’s wife. Against her the GOP is running Ray DiRaddo,
an attorney, town justice, and former town board member. The 6th also has a
serious third-party candidate: the Greens’ Chris Hilderbrant. Director of
advocacy at the Center for Disability Rights, Hilderbrant is an articulate
advocate and is well known both among governmental circles and in his own
district. Dems are worried that he might be a spoiler for Amato’s campaign.

The
other race the Dems could easily lose is the 26th. The seat is now held by
Steve Eckel, who was appointed earlier this year after Mitch Rowe stepped down.
The district encompasses part of the city, parts of Irondequoit and Gates,
and one large district in Greece, and it’s one
of the few very competitive races. Rowe says he won the seat by just 250 votes
out of about 5,000 cast. If you look at registration numbers for just prime
voters, he says, “it’s almost a dead heat.”

Eckel’s
Republican opponent is Tom Ferraro, who founded Foodlink and is its executive
director.

The
Dems will also face real challenges for both of the Irondequoit seats they hold,
though they’re expected to keep both. In the 17th district Ted O’Brien, who
like Eckel was appointed to his seat, is an attorney and past chair of the
Monroe Democratic Party. He faces businessman Phil Miglioratti.

Stephanie
Aldersley, the legislator for Irondequoit’s other
district, the 18th, is the legislature minority leader. Like her Republican
counterpart Bill Smith, she’s the favorite in her district. But though she’s
said she not worried, she’s taking no chances, running an all-out campaign. She
faces Lydia Dzus, a town board member and former town clerk.

The
most likely scenario is that all or most of the races play out according to the
numbers. If that happens, the status quo — a Republican majority that needs
Democrats only for bonding issues — would be preserved intact. The dearth of
interest these races have generated so far (and the low voter turnout that
could lead to) dictate that will probably happen.

This article appears in Oct 19-25, 2005.