Untangling the 2014 election results

Obamacare wasn’t the deciding issue in the 2014 elections.
Neither was the SAFE Act, abortion rights, or Common Core.

Instead, the
election was influenced by a mishmash of national and state issues, the appeal
of individual candidates, and low turnout — all of which resulted in a
Republican wave.

“No one
issue ruled the day,” says Anthony Plonczynski, a Democratic activist and
leader of a legislative district committee in the City of Rochester.

At the
national level, Republicans won enough US Senate races to take control of the
chamber in 2015. The party also added to its majority in the House of
Representatives, toppled Democratic governors in a few states, and flipped a
few state legislative chambers.

In New York,
Republicans regained an outright majority in the State Senate — an
accomplishment made possible in part by Rich Funke’s victory over sitting
Democratic State Senator Ted O’Brien. The race was a priority for both parties
at the state and local levels, and both candidates fought hard for the seat.

But the
election’s biggest surprise locally was the exceedingly close Congressional
race between House Representative Louise Slaughter, a Democrat, and her
Republican opponent, Gates Supervisor Mark Assini. Slaughter has a history of
handily beating or outright trouncing her challengers.

Slaughter
appears to have won this year’s race, too, but the election results won’t be
final for at least a week.

The
Republican wave of 2014 had everything to do with motivation. GOP-aligned
voters were unhappy about a slew of state and national issues and enthusiastic
about their candidates, so they went to the polls. Democrats didn’t.

“The
Republicans were angry yesterday and the Democrats who failed to vote are angry
today,” said Dave Garretson, Monroe County Democratic Committee chair, last
week.

On the
national level, the Affordable Care Act — Obamacare — was a driving issue.

Many people
who voted see problems with the act, says Bill Reilich, chair of the county
Republican Party. But Garretson says that voters haven’t had enough time to see
the benefits of the reforms, and that hurt Democrats.

In Upstate
New York, there were other issues at play, too. In the Funke-O’Brien contest,
Funke’s opposition to the SAFE Act and Common Core resonated with voters,
Reilich says.

But on the
whole, Upstate voters were wary of handing total control of state government to
Democrats, Reilich says, and that was a big factor in Funke’s win and the GOP’s
other Senate gains.

“I think
most people, whether you’re Republican or Democrat, except for the diehards,
but the vast majority of Republicans and Democrats really feel comfortable when
there’s some sort of a balance,” Reilich says. “One keeps the other in check.”

There’s also
the matter of individual candidates. Assini campaigned hard, knocked on over
12,000 doors, and spent a lot of time talking to voters, Reilich says, while
Funke’s name recognition went a long way toward his victory.

And
Republican voters in Monroe County were enthusiastic enough about the party’s
gubernatorial candidate, Rob Astorino, that Astorino won Monroe County. Those
results likely benefitted Funke and Assini while hurting O’Brien and Slaughter.

The top of a
party’s ticket can make or break races across the state; a popular candidate
can pull in votes for candidates farther down the ballot. But Governor Andrew
Cuomo has become a polarizing figure in the Democratic Party. He’s not popular
with progressives, and he’s angered other potential Democratic voters with his
education reform positions and his dithering on fracking.

It’s
unlikely those groups threw their votes to Astorino, though Green Party
candidate Howie Hawkins probably peeled off a few. It’s entirely likely that a
lot of potential Democratic voters, out of ambivalence or frustration, just
didn’t go to the polls.

This year’s
results don’t bode well for Democrats heading into 2015’s local elections, when
the county executive seat and all County Legislature seats are up for grabs.

County
Republicans and Democrats have started talking about who they’ll run for the
exec position, and with good reason: incumbent Maggie Brooks can’t run because
of term limits. The open seat gives Dems a better chance.

Assini is
now well-positioned for a bid, but could hold out for another run at Congress.

Democrats
know they can’t win the exec and Legislature seats if their voters stay home.
They need an exec candidate who is thoughtful, charismatic, and someone
Democratic voters can enthusiastically support, Plonczynski says. The fractured
party needs to unify, he says, and craft a strong message behind its candidate.

Dems are
developing that message, Garretson says. The county is in a precarious
financial position, he says, which is hurting its ability to provide important
services. He says he hopes that’s something voters consider come Election Day
2015.

“I expect
Democrats to be plenty angry,” Garretson says.

This article appears in Nov 5-11, 2014.